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meetings (the A grade).

I later added midweek Wednesdays for a while but the return was not
justified by the extra effort  , so today , I just punt on Metro Sat
meetings in Syd...Melb...Ascot/Belmont...& the occassional Brissy & Adelaide
meetings .

During our recent successful foray into punting into the UK flat racing
season from June - October ....we only concentrated on the 'A' grade again ,
restricting our interests exclusively to Listed & Group racing ..........we
left the crap racing that was being served up by Sky & the Tabs alone
entirely ......it worked over there as well .

Broadly speaking ,......I bet into the <4/1 market & usually take e/w odds
on any runner at or above 4/1 (about a third of all selections) .....this
market is not exclusive however as my best result so far this season has
come from Zavite recently @ 15/1 ......& last season landed 2 @ 20/1
.....but these results are not common for me .

To compensate for the loss of profits as a result of having less bets , I've
simple increased my average investment considerably over the years ........I
still remain very much a mid-level punter , far from being a professional
high roller , but I do put in the same amount of work & dedication on each
race meeting as the pro's ..........I simply pick & choose my races
carefully .

I'm a percentage player & I have a long held notion that stands me in good
stead today .

I regard myself "at risk" everytime I place a bet ....therefore , the less
times I can "go to the well" , the more I reduce my exposure to risk .....it
works for me .

You will gather from the above that I'm not a big fan of "churning" .

Quite often , though not always , you find that punters who "churn" their
win/ew bets are simply punting outside their safe working capital or punting
bank .

They are either punting from week to week with whatever funds are at hand ,
or their Capital or Bank is inadequate .

In the business world ......60% of all new ventures do not survive the first
12 months ......there are a number of reasons for this of course , but the
overwhelming number 1 reason is lack of working capital .......& so it is
with punting .

If you can only afford to put $2,000 aside as a punting bank/working capital
..........make your average bet $50 ........not $100 or $200 .

If your average bet is $10 ..try to find a Bank of at least $400 .

If you are punting an average $250 with a bank of $2,000 ........in my
opinion , you're punting well outside your league & safety level & are
putting yourself at tremendous risk .

There are many more points to cover re punting in general , but I think
we've covered enough for the moment .

I'll finish off with 3 more points from The Winning ( & Losing ) Frame of
Mind .

** The Winning (& losing) Frame of Mind **

5)...Mental readiness.

This subject covers a more detailed ground than the over-all subject of The
Psychology of Punting , but it is an important part of that general subject
.

For me .........it means being in a ready state of mind to quickly absorb &
assimilate facts & figures ..........sort the wheat out from the ubiquitous
chaff quickly & accurately ......maintain a good concentration span
.........make sound logical value judgements when all the facts & data are
at hand .

The abilty to do this at a peak level is very much an individual matter
.........I think the only way to determine this is by experience over time ,
taking full note of your reactions .

Personally ...I found it impossible to think clearly enough at a racetrack
to make sound decisions ........I tried & failed dismally ........I couldn't
handle all the distractions from course announcers ....mates talking
........pushing & shoving .

I tried isolating myself on course by removing myself to a quiet corner of
the grandstand , but that didn't work for me .

Eventually I arrived at the only solution that worked for me that also
allowed me to enjoy the day at the races socially & having a few Barossa
reds & single malts .

That was to have all my selections well worked out before I left home for
the track each raceday .........I almost never added a selection at the
track & only dropped a selection very occassionally when the pre-race
behaviour of the horse was so obvious that something wasn't right .

I thought I had this problem solved until I realised I had to make a very
significant change to my lifestyle as it was then .

I was a part owner of a beautiful boutique type Pub in North Adelaide ....we
had restored it faithfully to its 1836 splendour & it was a very popular
watering hole as well as being the social centre for the SA Sheffield Shield
cricket team .

It was my habit to hit the pub about about 10 am each morning & work on the
books until 1 pm ..........then it was play time every day , but especially
on Fridays ..........by the time I arrived home (by cab) at 6pm that evening
 , I was not really in a ready mental state to make racing & punting
assessements .

I overcame this slight hiccup by starting my ratings & assessments on
Thursday morning when final acceptances were declared .......I worked at
them for a few hours & then headed for "The British" as usual
..........Friday morning began for me at around 3am , & I did another 7
hours solid at the computer before heading off again .........Saturday
morning began at 3am again and the final assessments were made before I left
for the track around 10am .

I relate the above story purely as an illustration of how  far some of us
will go to maintain the status quo , especially when it involves having a
good time .

This regime worked well for me for a long time , but eventually I hit the
wall , just like James related , & was forced to head bush for 5 months to
recover & regroup .

I just became sick of Racing & Punting & all things connected with it
...........I stopped enjoying my days at the track .........I was still
winning , but was miserable about it .

Between Thursday morning and Saturday morning , I was putting in as many as
18 hours on just one day's racing involving a list of approx 15 "possible"
selections which reduced to around 7 selections for the day spread over 3 -
4 States .

The rest of the time was devoted to a little business at the Pub and a lot
of havin' a good time ........something had to give .

These days , I still enjoy my Lunching most days , but I don't drink at all
now & life is a lot easier & enjoyable .

I'm not suggesting that anyone has to give up the booze to be a successful
punter , merely that you have to combine the two better than I was able to .

If you are going to sit down and make possible life changing decisions
.....you simply
have to be in a suitable mental state to make them .

Arguing with the wife or partner ........noisy kids .......blaring music
.......repeated uneccessary phone calls from bored friends who have nothing
better to do ...........financial pressure ........health issues ........all
these and many other circumstances can negatively affect your mental
readiness ...........the list is endless & it's very individual .

I have a very successful multiple & exotic professional punting friend who
operates from home in Melbourne .....he only deals on Hong Kong & Aussie Sat
Racing because of pool sizes .

He has a purpose built room attached to his home ..........when he's working
.......the door is shut and a red light shines above the door .........his
wife & kids know not to disturb him when the light's on unless it's vitally
important .

It causes no rifts in his household ..........they know that Dad is at work
& that work provides them with the great lifestyle they all enjoy .

You do whatever it takes .

Finally .......just two more items under the heading of Mental Readiness .

Personal Comfort Level .............this factor to me is very important
.........it can mean many different things to different people , but to me ,
it mainly refers to punting within your means .

Not always within financial means either , but punting at the level and with
the frequency that feels comfortable for you individually .

Many of you know my actual punting levels , but I usually refer to Unit
values these days ....the unit value can be whatever you wish it to be , but
as a comparison , I can tell you that at the beginning in 1989 my average
bet expressed in today's unit value was 1/20th of a unit ...............it
has slowly progressed over the years to around 2 Units in 1999  & 5 units
today .

I kept turning profits back into my punting for years & never took any out
........in some years , I added a little to my working Capital , not because
it was needed , but because I wanted to increase my average investment ahead
of profits .

Just a word about Working Capital (Punting Bank) ....it is not necessary of
course to have your complete Working Capital on hand at any given time , in
fact , it is foolish to do so ......I usually have 1/3rd on hand in cash &
2/3rds in easily convertible investments where they are value-adding profits
(unfortunately , these value added profits are subject to tax ) .

It is only recently that I've begun to remove funds from accumulated Punting
profits in any significant amounts when Lui & I bought our new home in
Chiangmai .

Before that happened , I could have well afforded to have increased my
average unit bet from 5 to 10 without much of a struggle .......I had no
doubt that it would double profit ....after 18 years of punting & recording
, you tend to develop this confidence .

I chose not to because I felt it would disturb my personal comfort level
........it's something you have to work out for yourself .

Burnout .......you have read of 2 actual instances of punting burnout in the
last week ........one from myself & the other from James Graham .

I'm sure many of you have either experienced similar mental downturns , or
gone close .

With the benefit of hindsight , I can categorically state that there is only
one cure .........that is the complete , repeat COMPLETE, removal of all
things punting from your life ..........don't read the formguide ...don't
listen to the radio .....don't watch Sky or TVN .

Some may be able to cope & recover in other ways ...again it's up to the
individual , but it is a subject that most of my serious punting friends
have experienced to certain degrees & most of us agree that simply cutting
back doesn't work .

I'll cover more on this in a later post ..........factors such as Discipline
....Positive Arrogance .... Self Confidence ....Assertiveness rather than
Aggression....Passitivity as a negative factor (ie. risk aversion) ....all
of these issues are part of this "Mental Readiness" discussion , but they
are so important , they really deserve to be considered in a separate
discussion , so I've set them out  separately in Parts (4)  &  (5) .

6)...Physical readiness.

This of course goes very much in hand with item (5) above .

It is no coincidence that the worst punting perfomances I've experienced in
18 years of serious punting have been during periods of ill health
......times when I've continued to  push the envelope when I should have put
my punting (& playing) on hold & rested as the medicos advised .

I've been fortunate to survive these bouts , both physically & financially ,
but they were foolish decisions ......most ended up with time in hospital
where I was forced to give up the punt altogether .

Bad colds ......virus attacks .....in fact , any form of unwellness &
punting just don't mix .

Some of us find this very simple principle very hard to accept & I fell for
it again just a couple of months ago until I just couldn't get out of my bed
at The Hyatt in Melbourne to get to Caulfield for the first on Guineas Day
.........eventually I arrived at the track at 1 pm feeling dreadful
............fortunately , I didn't have any bets that day , but by the next
Saturday , when I was expected to be at Caulfield again for the Cup as a
guest in the commitee room ......I was in the Royal Adelaide Hospital with
drips in both arms feeding into the drip lying in bed .

I'd picked the virus up 2 months earlier in Thailand & could have done
something about it then when just a weeks rest might have solved the problem
, but I didn't .

Like everyone else ......I know the theory .......sometimes I fail the
practical application through sheer pig-headedness.

Will it happen again ..........why ask me .........I wouldn't have a clue ,
but I hope it doesn't .

You don't have to be ill to be unfit physically of course ............lack
of sleep .......poor quality sleep & a host of other conditions can affect
our physical readiness .........being tired equates to poor concentration &
more mistakes .....missed triggers .......most of us have some sort of
"fatigue alarm" .....many of us ignore it & try to push through .......if
you are just punting for fun , you can get away with it .....if you're
punting for profit or a living you don't have this luxury .

7)...A basic knowledge of Probabilty Theory or the Relationship of Odds to
real Probability

Much has been written on this subject , so I'll just pass on a few personal
comments , then recommend some low key , easily understood reading to get
you kick started if the subject is new to you .

For more detailed information , simply Google up "Probability Theory " on
the internet .

Maybe some other Ausracers can recommend some good reading on the subject .

If you've formally studied Probabilty Theory as many of us have , you'll
appreciate the value of this knowledge .......it does have to be adapted
specifically  for racing however , just as it has to be adapted for
Blackjack ...Poker...Roulette & other Casino games , but the basic
principles are the same .

Again ........the basics might be the  same or similar but the sting is in
the application .

This subject can be allied to item (1) above ........how can you hope to win
at a game you don't understand fully .....only luck will save you & that's
only in the short term .

Bite the bullet & at least learn the basics .

A quote I learned early in my Punting Journey into Blackjack & Punting has
always stayed with me .

" Probabilty is a quantification of our ignorance, not a measure of a
horse's ability."

Think about it !!

I notice that it is repeated in the article below by Dave Jones .

I can only recommend that you heed its wisdom .

I think the first aspect of this subject to tackle is the conversion of Odds
to Probabilities & understand the full conversion tables by heart ....this
knowledge will allow you to immediately calculate the "True" book percentage
being offered on each individual race .

Pay attention to the over-all percentages ..........the percentages relating
to a single race in isolation are often nothing more than a random event
............the percentages relating to a full season's punting tend to be
far more accurate .

Firstly ........let me suggest you read the article on the Ausrace web page
by Doug Robb at::

http://ausrace.com/art/dougprob.html

And the following article under "Tips & Tricks" by Dave Jones at ::

http://ausrace.com/art/swan.html

Comments & Feedback on this very important aspect of Racing knowledge will
be appreciated .

Well folks .....that's plenty to absorb for another week or so .

Good Luck & don't be afraid to break your silence if you feel the urge .

The only silly question is the one that's never asked .

Regards ,

Duff

Michael O'Shaunessy Duffy
Cygnet Racing Foundation
Cygnet Thoroughbred Management
Chiang Mai Bloodstock Syndications
63 Vine St  Magill      SA  5072
Ph::: 08 8364 6659
Mob :: 0400 526 193
Email::  mdu59851 at bigpond.net.au